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From mid-2017 to mid-2017, China's supply-side structural reforms handed over staged “transcriptsâ€: economic growth remained at a medium-to-high speed level of 6.9% for two consecutive quarters, up from 6.7% for three consecutive quarters in 2016. "Small steps."
On July 17, the "semi-annual report" of the Chinese economy announced by the National Bureau of Statistics of China showed that the national economy was in a stable state in the first half of the year. The picture shows a newly built real estate project in Fuzhou.
The unexpected growth is not limited to this. The number of new jobs in urban areas is 7.35 million, the foreign exchange reserves have increased for five consecutive months, and the sluggish exports have increased by 15% year-on-year. Many indicators in the first half of the Chinese economy are full of surprises.
This "stable and good" situation has benefited from economic development with supply-side structural reform as the main line. For example, Gao Peiyong, member of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and director of the Institute of Economic Research, said that an important reason for China's stable economic stability is the proper use of macroeconomic policies.
The supply-side structural reform is actually a historic “prescriptionâ€. After more than 30 years of rapid development, China has moved from middle-income countries to high-income countries, and various contradictions have been concentrated and structural problems have become prominent. Since 2011, China's economic growth rate has been declining quarter by quarter, and reform is imminent. At the end of 2015, the decision-making layer launched the “prescription†– while moderately expanding aggregate demand, and focused on strengthening supply-side structural reforms. Later, the path and specific plan for reform were gradually proposed, and the five key tasks of “three to one, one reduction and one supplement†were determined.
As the "vanguard" of the structural reform of the supply side, China's steel and coal and other fields "removing capacity" have repeatedly accelerated. In the first half of this year, China Steel's “de-capacity†completed its full-year target. Coal exported a total of 111 million tons in the first half of the year and completed 74% of its annual target tasks. This series of policies has driven up the price of steel and coal, and has also significantly improved the profitability and capacity utilization rate of the industry. In the first half of the year, China's industrial capacity utilization rate was 76.4%, an increase of 3.4 percentage points over the same period of the previous year.
Li Xinchuang, dean of the Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute, revealed that the benefits of the member companies of the Iron and Steel Industry Association in January-May improved by 31.562 billion yuan (RMB, the same below). However, the sales profit of steel enterprises in the same period was only 2.81%. "The work of de-capacity cannot be stopped."
“Destocking†is equally effective. Since last year, China's property market inventory has declined for many months. At the end of June, the area of ​​commercial housing for sale decreased by 9.6% year-on-year, and the decrease was 3.2 percentage points higher than that at the end of March. Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate, pointed out that China's real estate inventories have fallen to a 28-month low in the first half of the year. The partial resolution of stocks also allowed real estate investment to avoid stalling, and there was a trend of “slowing downâ€.
In the first half of the year, the leverage ratio of enterprises declined. At the end of May, the asset-liability ratio of industrial enterprises above designated size was 56.1%, down 0.7 percentage points year-on-year. Dong Yuping, director of the Investment and Financing Research Center of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, pointed out that the overall level of leverage of enterprises is not high, and it is still falling significantly, and the risk of bankruptcy default is low.
Corporate costs continue to decline. From January to May, the cost per 100 yuan of main business income of industrial enterprises above designated size was 85.62 yuan, a decrease of 0.04 yuan year-on-year. Feng Qiaobin, a professor of economics at the National School of Administration, pointed out that in the past two years, the “reform of the camp has increased†by 1.1 trillion yuan, and the administrative fees have been reduced from 185 to 51, a reduction of 72%. The tax reduction and fee reduction measures introduced this year are expected to reduce the company's annual burden by more than 1 trillion yuan.
In addition, the short board sector has also been strengthened. In the first half of the year, China's investment in ecological protection and environmental management, water management, transportation, warehousing, postal services, and education increased by 46.0%, 17.5%, 14.7%, and 17.8%, respectively, both significantly faster than the growth rate of fixed asset investment during the same period. .
The first "Technical Assessment Report on the Progress of G20 Structural Reform" submitted by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) recently concluded that China's structural reforms have made positive progress and achieved remarkable results.
Li Daokui, a professor at Tsinghua University, pointed out that the continued improvement of the global economy, the obvious effect of the reform of China's economic supply side, and the positive role of local governments will prompt the Chinese economy to break out of the growth rate this year. This year's industrial producers' ex-factory price (PPI) cleared some excess production capacity during a 54-month negative growth, and some "toxins" have been emitted on the supply side. In addition, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held soon. The local government will have sufficient enthusiasm for attracting investment and the economic situation will improve. 2017 will be the process of economic bottoming. From 2018 to 2019, China's economic growth is expected to return to the "7 era."
Of course, the pain of the transformation and upgrading process is inevitable. Gao Peiyong pointed out that the reason for the structural contradiction on the supply side is the distortion of factor allocation, which is an institutional and institutional obstacle. It should rely on reform to break through institutional barriers and create conditions for further reform. Although the current economic situation has improved, it is necessary to be wary of the structural reforms on the supply side, and actually still take the old road of stimulating demand.
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