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——Market forecast and trend trailing
Our use of technical analysis is really rushing to the shelves of ducks. The characteristic of technical analysis is that it is not deterministic and probabilistic. People with a little technical analysis can understand this. In the transaction, the game is money, and it just requires certainty. Trading is difficult, money is hard to earn, and losses are a common occurrence. The reason is that everyone uses a technical analysis that does not have certainty, and madly pursues certain transactions in uncertain markets. This is really awkward. The chances of pursuing a deterministic visible success with two uncertainties will be small and the probability of failure will be large.
After talking about technical analysis by common beginners, Huang Su often asks everyone: What is technical analysis? After the closing of the transaction, in every meditation state, we should ask ourselves from the depths of our hearts: What is the technical analysis?
Rely on uncertainty to find certainty
One person eagerly wants to cross the river. At the moment he boarded the ship, he said, "We are very likely to be unable to reach the other side of the river. If we cross the center of the river, we will sink to the bottom of the river." You must be shocked to jump to the rush. ashore. what is this? This is technical analysis, you only need to make a deal on this ship that is unpredictable. Whether you are a subjective transaction or a quantitative transaction; no matter how advanced you are in a programmatic trading system; whether you are doing a trend or a short-term transaction. Both life and non-life are the same.
Technical analysis is not deterministic, it is probabilistic, so we always have to take a light position in the transaction (position is 10-15%) to resist the damage caused by unexpected, the only thing you can do is to reduce the position enough low. Some friends often ask this question, or say this, or think like this: Can you make a heavy position when you judge it accurately? This is the problem and heart that every operator who relies on technical analysis transactions will always be in the heart. My answer is yes. But you don't know when you can judge accurately, just as you don't know when the use of technical analysis will make mistakes. This is the core of the problem. In order to balance this problem, we must adopt a suitable method or a light warehouse. Light storage is the safest solution. As for other methods, there are some methods, but they fall into the traps and traps of uncertainty. This is equivalent to the determination of the certainty of the transaction, and added an uncertainty based on the original two uncertain factors. Position control and fund management are the only viable ways to solve the risk problem because it is deterministic.
Using technical analysis to engage in trading is not a taste of wealth and wealth. Indeed, the use of technical analysis is daring and risky, so don’t say that losing money is a common occurrence in this market, it is a big loss that shocks China and foreign countries. The events are also numerous.
Forecast market VS trailing market
It is undisputed that the majority of traders use technical analysis to predict the market, because it has the fatal drawbacks of uncertainty, this application is awkward and unwise. In order to avoid confusion in the transaction and avoid the end of the robbery, the best way is no longer a light warehouse. What will Huang Su Na be? The answer is not to predict the market, only the trailing market operation. In the transaction, the beatings are definitely predicting the market, because they are based on the battlefield; if the cat is behind the waist, it will definitely be unscathed.
In fact, the smaller the time frame of the transaction, the more random the market, and the less valuable the technical analysis is. For example, high-frequency speculation, almost can ignore the so-called technical analysis, that is, the uninterrupted order transaction to the futures company to collect rebates. In the course of trading, it is difficult to judge the trend. This is the core discovery of Dow Theory. The trailing trend is also quite difficult. When the trend market has gone 25-30%, you can confirm that the market has developed. Trailing, but at this time the market often appears repeated, callbacks.
If you profit from the trailing trend, you can consider gradually adding positions. That is, I said the dynamic fund management: after 10% profit, the position can be increased to 20-30%; if profit taking, the position must be quickly, without hesitation, and decisively down; if the profit exceeds 10 %, even reaching 50%, 80%, 120, 200%, positions should not be considered to increase again.
As far as technical analysis is concerned, the trailing trend is the wise man of the transaction, and the operation of the forecast market is the slap in the face. The profitability of trailing trending operations is much greater than the forecasting market; the odds of beating are also minimal.
Technical analysis is difficult for strong people
The use of technical analysis is always full of helplessness. The promotion and popularization of technical analysis has promoted the transaction and market prosperity, and also brought operational reference and courage to traders. However, every loss is linked to technical analysis, and he has a responsibility that cannot be shirked. In fact, everyone sees that if there is a little spirituality in technical analysis, it will erotically say to users that I really don’t want you to use it because I am incompetent. I am not certain, I will give it anytime, anywhere. Give you a loss. Our use of technical analysis is indeed driving the ducks on the shelves, because in the face of uncertain markets, we have no more suitable methods than technical analysis.
Some users of technical analysis will say that technical analysis works well. Traders who look at technical analysis in this way are looking at things in a point-and-click manner. Very simple, technical analysis is very useful. Why didn't you become the winner of the transaction? And why traders who continue to make profits for decades are taking the definitive path of fund management.
In order to maintain the silver lining of trading, the trader will not, dare, and timidly question the use of technical analysis. If technical analysis is a manager, he is subject to repeated accountability. The reason why we would rather doubt our own technical analysis application is not to doubt or question the technical analysis itself, but the gap between understanding and cognitive ability. . As long as the interests are involved, there will be many blind spots, occlusions, and obstacles, let alone trade to make money.
Technical analysis is undoubtedly a trading tool, but the outcomes of different traders are quite different and different. There are very few cases in which trade winners are subject to technical analysis, because the use of technical analysis often makes mistakes. Instead of relying on the uncertainty of technical analysis, it is better to commit to the determined fund management. Huang Su is a trade, trading is a risk-filled game, fund management can be more risk-averse, and the more technical analysis is used, the greater the chance of error. This is the use of technical analysis to be modest.
Uncertainty must be used as little as possible. The ferry and Mekong that we talked about earlier are to cross the river as little as possible, and the Shaodu River can take less ferry boats.
It is difficult to do things that are too late or unwilling to do, that is, it is difficult for a strong person. I want to accurately express that: Every day our transactions are difficult for technical analysis. You open the futures technical analysis books compiled by Blinger and Murphy, and you try the most advanced program trading system. You will feel that they are mostly unable to do anything in front of the trading market. I have seen many so-called big data quantitative trading systems, all of which are combined with subjective transactions.
If we want to survive in the trading market of Boyun, we must know that people are good at doing things, seeing problems, understanding problems, and knowing how to solve problems by the situation, rather than rushing the strong people who are on the shelves.
The technical analysis in the hands of the majority of traders is overwhelmed and has been a distorted, crushed, and even unrecognized technical analysis. It is time to analyze the original style of technical analysis.
(Editor: Wu Xiaolin HF106)
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